Interactive database: filter the 50 industries and run a CAGR calculator on the Industries page.
Over the past two decades, a small set of industries captured an outsized share of global growth and market-value creation. McKinsey Global Institute calls them “arenas of competition”: sectors that combine high growth with intense competitive dynamism.
McKinsey Global Institute’s 2024 analysis identifies 18 potential future arenas and models $29–48 trillion in combined 2040 revenue across them. Those figures describe McKinsey’s collective scenario, not the 50 rows below.
At the same time, China’s NDRC described six emerging pillar industries and six future industries in March 2026. It estimated that output related to the six emerging pillars alone could exceed RMB 10 trillion by 2030; this is not a forecast for all 12 categories together.
This report brings those signals together into a provisional screening list of 50 industries—with representative technologies, indicative figures where available, and commercial or policy notes.
Evidence status: All original screening ranges, growth rates and projections below remain unverified. The Industries page and downloadable CSV now carry separate, source-checked historical baselines for semiconductors and cybersecurity, plus broader prescription-medicine context for biopharmaceuticals. Each added record has its own year, scope and source; it does not verify the original figures in this report. Empty original-source fields mean unverified, not zero or not applicable. Selected contextual reading links also do not substantiate market size or CAGR. See the methodology for the verification standard.
1. McKinsey’s Future Arenas
McKinsey groups high-growth, high-dynamism industries into themes such as:
- AI foundation — AI software and services, semiconductors, cloud
- Digitization — e-commerce, digital advertising, cybersecurity, streaming, games
- Electrification — EVs, batteries, nuclear fission
- Hard tech — robotics, space, shared autonomous vehicles, future air mobility, modular construction
- New bio-frontiers — obesity drugs, industrial and consumer biotech
These arenas are defined by steep S-curves, shifting market shares, and outsized contribution to GDP growth.
2. China’s Policy Pillars
China’s NDRC has prioritized:
- Six emerging pillars: integrated circuits, aerospace, biopharmaceuticals, low-altitude economy, new-type energy storage, intelligent robots
- Six future industries: quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, green hydrogen and fusion, brain-computer interface, embodied AI, 6G
Together they form a clear directional map for the next decade of industrial policy and capital allocation.
3. How the List of 50 Was Built
The 50 entries below expand the McKinsey arenas and Chinese pillars into a broader working list, adding adjacent high-growth segments (data centers, fintech, silver economy, advanced materials, etc.) so readers can scan both global and China-focused opportunity spaces in one place.
| Rank | Industry | Representative Technology | Market Size (~2025) | Projected Size | Est. CAGR | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AI Software & Services | Large models / Agentic AI, Generative AI | ~$230–390B | $1.5–2.4T (2030–32) | 25%–35% | Enterprise AI spend surging; Gartner ~$1.5T AI spend in 2025 |
| 2 | Semiconductors | Advanced nodes (2nm/3nm), HBM, AI accelerators | ~$630–775B | $1.5–3.2T (2030) | 10%–18% | AI servers driving growth; BofA sees $3.2T TAM by 2030 |
| 3 | Cloud Services | Hyperscale data centers, AI training/inference cloud | ~$220B baseline | $1.6–3.4T (2040) | 12%–17% | Infrastructure demand accelerating with AI |
| 4 | Electric Vehicles (EVs) | Solid-state batteries, 800V platforms, domain controllers | ~$900–990B | $1.1–3.7T (2030–35) | 10%–15% | China leads volume; IEA tracks global adoption |
| 5 | Batteries & Energy Storage | Solid-state, sodium-ion, flow batteries | ~$98B (batteries) | $810B–1.1T (2040) | 12%–14% | China new-type storage is a pillar industry |
| 6 | Shared Autonomous Vehicles | L4/L5 autonomy, Robotaxi, vehicle-road coordination | Early stage | $610B–2.3T (2040) | High (4%–20%) | Waymo, Cruise, Tesla advancing commercialization |
| 7 | Space Economy | Reusable rockets, LEO constellations, satellite internet | ~$550–626B | $1–1.8T (2035–40) | 7%–10% | Launch cost decline; commercial services dominant |
| 8 | Cybersecurity | Zero Trust, AI security, quantum-safe cryptography | ~$160–240B | $590B–1.2T (2040) | 8%–20% | AI threats + quantum computing driving demand |
| 9 | Robotics (Industrial + Service) | Humanoid robots, collaborative robots, embodied AI | ~$50–90B | $110–205B (2030) | 14%–20% | China intelligent robots is a pillar industry |
| 10 | E-commerce | Social commerce, instant retail, cross-border platforms | Mature large-scale | $14–20T (2040) | 7%–9% | Emerging markets + new categories |
| 11 | Digital Advertising | Programmatic, AI targeting, retail media networks | ~$320–580B range | $2.1–2.9T (2040) | 8%–20% | AI optimization + privacy shifts |
| 12 | Streaming Video | Cloud gaming, interactive streaming, AI content | Mature growth | Multi-hundred $B | Mid-high | Content + advertising models converging |
| 13 | Video Games | Cloud gaming, metaverse games, AI NPCs | Hundreds of $B | Continued strong growth | Mid-high | ~40% of global population may be gamers by 2030 |
| 14 | Modular Construction | Prefabricated modules, digital construction | Early expansion | High potential | High | Labor shortages + efficiency drivers |
| 15 | Future Air Mobility | eVTOL, urban air mobility | Early commercialization | $75–340B (2040) | 10%–20% | China low-altitude economy is a pillar industry |
| 16 | Obesity & Related Drugs | GLP-1 agonists, innovative weight-loss drugs | ~$24–100B range | $120–280B (2040) | 9%–35% | Semaglutide-class drugs driving rapid growth |
| 17 | Nuclear Fission Power | Small modular reactors (SMR), advanced reactors | ~$18B baseline | $65–150B (2040) | 7%–13% | Energy security + low-carbon dual drivers |
| 18 | Industrial & Consumer Biotech | Synthetic biology, enzyme engineering, bio-based materials | Early to growth | High potential | High | Non-medical biotech; sustainable materials |
| 19 | Integrated Circuits (China focus) | Domestic advanced packaging, Chiplet, automotive chips | Rapid China growth | Part of 6 pillars > RMB 10T by 2030 | 20%+ | NDRC emerging pillar industry |
| 20 | Aerospace (China focus) | Domestic large aircraft, satellites, LEO constellations | Rapid expansion | Part of 6 pillars | High | Large aircraft + commercial space |
| 21 | Biopharmaceuticals | Cell & gene therapy, antibody drugs, AI drug discovery | Mature high growth | Continued expansion | 15%–25% | Aging + innovation; China pillar industry |
| 22 | Low-Altitude Economy | Drone logistics, eVTOL, low-altitude air traffic management | Early boom in China | China may exceed RMB 3.5T by 2035 | 30%+ | Strong policy support; NDRC pillar |
| 23 | New-Type Energy Storage | Electrochemical, compressed air, flywheel storage | Rapid China growth | Part of 6 pillars | 25%+ | Mandatory storage pairing with wind/solar |
| 24 | Intelligent Robots | Humanoid, industrial intelligent, service robots | Rapid expansion | Part of 6 pillars | High | NDRC priority; embodied AI synergy |
| 25 | Quantum Technology | Quantum computing, communication, sensing | Early R&D / commercialization | ~$85B by 2035 possible | High | China future industry; technology breakthrough phase |
| 26 | Bio-manufacturing | Synthetic bio-manufacturing, cell factories | Early | High-potential future industry | High | China future industry; chemical substitution |
| 27 | Green Hydrogen | Water electrolysis, hydrogen trucks, green hydrogen chemicals | Early commercialization | High growth | High | China future industry; dual-carbon goals |
| 28 | Nuclear Fusion Energy | Tokamak, inertial confinement, demo reactors | R&D stage | Long-term huge potential | Extremely high (long-term) | China future industry |
| 29 | Brain-Computer Interface | Invasive / non-invasive BCI, neuromodulation | Early clinical / commercial | High-potential future | High | China future industry |
| 30 | Embodied AI | Multimodal models + robot bodies, physical-world interaction | Early breakout | High-potential future | Extremely high | China future industry; humanoid synergy |
| 31 | 6G Communications | Terahertz, integrated space-air-ground networks | R&D / standards | Commercial after 2030 | High (long-term) | China future industry; IoT foundation |
| 32 | Data Centers & Computing Power | Liquid cooling, AI servers, intelligent computing centers | High-speed expansion | Continued high growth | High | AI training/inference demand; China computing power network |
| 33 | Renewable Energy (Solar + Wind) | Perovskite cells, large offshore turbines, IBC modules | Large-scale mature | Multi-trillion $ install base | Mid-high | Core of global energy transition |
| 34 | Hydrogen Full Value Chain | Green hydrogen production, storage/transport, fuel cells | Early to growth | High growth | High | Key path for trucking, steel, chemicals decarbonization |
| 35 | CCUS | Carbon capture, utilization, geological storage | Early | High growth potential | High | Industrial decarbonization & negative emissions |
| 36 | Smart Manufacturing / Industry 4.0 | Digital twins, industrial AI, flexible production lines | ~$550–650B (2025) | ~$1.6T (2030) | ~19% | Core of China’s manufacturing upgrade |
| 37 | Fintech | Digital payments, embedded finance, blockchain settlement | Mature high growth | Continued expansion | Mid-high | Global digital payments & financial inclusion |
| 38 | Silver Economy / Smart Elderly Care | Age-friendly products, telemedicine, rehab robots | Rapid China growth | Trillion-RMB market | 15%–20% | Aging population rigid demand |
| 39 | Gene & Cell Therapy | CRISPR gene editing, CAR-T, stem-cell therapy | Rapid commercialization | High growth | 20%+ | Precision medicine breakthroughs |
| 40 | Synthetic Biology | Genetic circuit design, microbial cell factories | Early expansion | High potential | High | Materials, food, energy applications |
| 41 | Advanced Materials | Graphene, superconducting materials, next-gen semiconductors | Early to growth | China ~RMB 1.2T by 2030 possible | High | Future materials priority direction |
| 42 | Satellite Internet | LEO constellations, high-throughput satellite communications | Rapid deployment | High growth | High | Global coverage & emergency communications |
| 43 | Autonomous Driving & Connected Vehicles | LiDAR, domain controllers, vehicle-road-cloud integration | Growth stage | High growth | High | Synergy with Robotaxi & low-altitude economy |
| 44 | Medical AI & Digital Health | AI diagnosis, telemedicine, wearable monitoring | Rapid expansion | High growth | High | Aging + efficiency dual drivers |
| 45 | Green Buildings & Energy Efficiency | BIPV, smart building systems | BIPV ~$17B (2024) | BIPV ~$42B (2029) etc. | ~20% | Dual-carbon & building energy control |
| 46 | Logistics Automation & Drone Delivery | Warehouse robots, last-mile delivery drones | Rapid expansion | High growth | High | E-commerce & instant delivery drivers |
| 47 | Digital Twin & Industrial Metaverse | Factory digital twins, virtual-physical simulation | Early to growth | High potential | High | Smart manufacturing & training applications |
| 48 | Privacy Computing & Data Elements | Federated learning, multi-party computation, data trading | Early expansion | High growth | 20%+ | Data element marketization & compliance |
| 49 | Advanced Connectivity | 5G-Advanced, 6G, space-air-ground-sea integration | 5G mature, 6G R&D | Long-term high growth | High | IoT & low-latency application foundation |
| 50 | Sustainable Food & Alternative Proteins | Cultured meat, plant-based proteins, precision fermentation | Early commercialization | High potential | High | Population + climate pressure food innovation |
4. What the List Highlights
- AI foundation cluster (AI software, semiconductors, cloud) is a useful set of related research questions about demand, infrastructure, and value capture.
- China’s policy priorities identify areas for further investigation; the list does not establish their investment outcomes.
- Electrification and hard tech (EVs, batteries, robotics, space, future air mobility) require separate market definitions before their estimates can be compared.
- Market sizes and CAGRs vary significantly across sources due to differing definitions; always cross-check the latest primary reports.
5. Background Sources (Not Row-Level Citations)
- McKinsey Global Institute, Growth industries and the next big arenas of competition (2024): future-arena framework and collective scenario.
- NDRC, economic press conference (March 2026, Chinese): names of the six emerging pillars and six future industries; aggregate output scenario for the pillars.
- IEA, Global EV Outlook 2025: EV adoption context; not a citation for the EV market-size row.
- OECD, The Space Economy in Figures (2023): definitions and measurement context; not a citation for the space market-size row.
- NIST SP 800-207, Zero Trust Architecture (2020): provided primary context for the cybersecurity category; not a citation for row 8’s market-size or CAGR.
- FDA, Frances Oldham Kelsey and thalidomide: provided primary context for pharmaceutical regulation; not a citation for row 21’s growth range.
List file updated September 2026; the date does not establish when the figures were sourced or checked. Verify every relevant estimate with its original report before use.